As Christmas draws near, many start imagining the joy of waking up to find that Santa has visited and the streets are covered in fresh snow. However, the Met Office, which often gets asked about the likelihood of a white Christmas as early as October, has explained the difficulties in making precise snow forecasts and how they often don’t match public expectations.
Even though media reports may predict snow, the Met Office advises waiting for more accurate forecasts. They point out that it’s only in the final week before Christmas that predictions can be trusted enough to gauge the possibility of snowfall on Christmas Day.
Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern elaborated, saying, “Instead of relying on just one computer model for a forecast weeks ahead, we run the models many times and look for patterns where the models agree or disagree. This helps us better understand the weather trends that are most likely and those that are less likely.”
Experts also highlighted the challenges of forecasting this early, noting that even a slight temperature shift can determine whether we’ll have the ideal conditions for snow or simply a wet, slushy day.
For a white Christmas in the UK, all it takes is one observer or an automatic weather station reporting a single snowflake on December 25. Technically, the most recent white Christmas was in 2023, when 11% of stations recorded snowfall, though none of it settled on the ground.
Since 1960, nearly half of Christmases have seen at least 5% of weather stations report snow, making more than half of all Christmas Days technically a “white Christmas.” However, snow that settles on the ground is much less common. Snow covering 40% of the stations has only occurred four times since 1960: in 1981, 1995, 2009, and 2010.
The last significant white Christmas was in 2010, a rare occasion when snow covered 83% of the stations—setting a record—and snow or sleet was reported at 19% of locations.
So, what’s in store for this year? The Met Office’s current long-term forecast for Christmas week suggests windy and rainy weather, with the possibility of snow in the northern hills. As Christmas approaches, more reliable predictions will emerge, so keep an eye out for updates.